About penm - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 17 Words: 5204 Downloads: 4 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Statistics Essay Did you like this example? Final Review Memorandum Newco JSC (Newco) Background PENM is seeking approval to invest up to DKK 115 m (USD 22 m), and minimum DKK 78 m (USD 15 m), in Newco, a fast growing, consumer orientated holding company with investments in Techcombank and Masan Food, with new, related, business areas to be added over time. With a 20% holding in Techcombank, Newcos assets are dominated by its bank investment, measured at current OTC prices, 2/3s of the market value of Newco relates to Techcombank. The investment represents PENMs only opportunity to invest, indirectly, in one of Vietnams most attractive unlisted bank, Techcombank.. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "About penm" essay for you Create order 1. Update since CRM Since writing the CRM, PENM has performed the following due diligence activities: Interviewed senior management of Techcombank, including the CEO, COO, Deputy Executive and Head of Treasury Interviewed some of Techcombanks advisors, including McKinsey Co, a consulting company assisting the bank with product and branch development strategies Interviewed PwC auditors, auditors of the two largest publically traded joint stock banks (ACB and Sacombank) as well as the largest of the state-owned banks (Vietcombank). Interviewed the CEO of Masan Food Performed additional financial analysis on Techcombank, Masan Food and the new business areas Signed a detailed term sheet and started contract negotiations This FRM incorporates the most significant findings from this due diligence and provides an update on the deal structures as well as PENMs valuation. As noted in the CRM, as a successful result of our close cooperation with Masan Food and Eurowindows, PENM has been presented with a unique opportunity to invest in Newco before other local funds have access to the deal. In order to take advantage of this access, the transaction needs to be closed by 15 September, subject to normal Board approvals. 2. Deal structure The establishment of Newco will follow the below steps: Establishment of Newco though a share swap of Techcombank and Masan Food shares PENMs investment Investment by foreign funds, reportedly Carlisle and TPG Newco will be established by owners of Techcombank and Masan Food shares, principally Masan Investment, Dr Quang (Masan Food Chairman) and Mr Ho Hung Anh (Techcombank Chairman), swapping their holdings for shares in Newco. Upon completion of the swaps Newco will have a direct holding of 20% in Techcombank (with an option for a further 10% direct investment, when the law allows, and indirect control of 40% of the banks share capital) and a minimum 55% holding in Masan Food. PENM will initially invest up to USD 22 m in new share capital for a 5.61% stake in the company. Furthermore, in order to: (1) protect PENMs investment in Masan Food from the risk of not being part of the company that is setting its strategy; and (2) enhance PENMs exit opportunities in the Masan Food, should Newco be listed in the future, PENM has obtained an opportunity to swap its shares in Masan Food for shares in Newco in 2 tranches. In order to have the opportunity to put our Masan Food shares, it has been necessary to give Newco a corresponding call option. The valuation of PENMs Masan Food shares under this arrangement will be a minimum USD 375 m, which compares favourably to PENMs entry price of USD 250 m (up 50%) and Mekong Capitals entry price from March 2009 of USD 320 (up 17%). The terms of the swap arrangement: Duration Masan Food Valuation (USD m) Newco Valuation (USD m) First put 12 months from closing 375 375 + 1,000 net debt First call 12 24 months after closing 375 Market price on stock exchange Second call 15 months from closing 400 within 12 months 415 from 12 15 months Market price on stock exchange Second put 15 21 months from closing 450 Market price on stock exchange The swap gives rise to the following ownership interest scenarios for PENM in Newco, before any dilution for additional capital raising activities: Investment / Share swap PENMs ownership interest in Newco Initial cash investment Up to USD 22 m 5.61% # 1st Option PENM swaps 3,150,000 shares in Masan Food 10.07% 2nd Option PENM swaps the remainder of its shares in Masan Food 14.23% * #: At an initial pre-money valuation of USD370 m (55% x $400 m + 20% x $1,000 m $50 m net debt) *: Assumes valuation of Newco is the same as entry Swap arrangement: Masan Food Valuation (USD m) Newco Valuation (USD m) First put 12 months from closing 350 before listing of Newco 300 after listing of Newco 350 + 1000 net debt First call 12-18 months from closing 350 Market price on stock exchange Second call 15 or 18 months from closing upto First put excersied before or after listing 400 within 12 months 415 from 12 15 months or 12 18 months Market price on stock exchange Second put 15-18 or 18-24 months from closing upto Second call period 450 Market price on stock exchange Following ownership interest scenarios for PENM in Newco: Investment/Shareswap PENMs ownership interest in Newco Initial cash investment Up to USD 22 m 5.57% # First put PENM swaps 4,410,000 shares in Masan Food 11.49% First call PENM swaps 4,410,000 shares in Masan Food 11.11% * Second call PENM swaps remaining shares in Masan Food 13.62% * or 13.70% * Second put PENM swaps remaining shares in Masan Food 13.88% * #: At an initial pre-money valuation of USD3 71.6 m (54.7%x $400m + 20%x$1,000 m $47.2 m net debt) *: Assumes valuation of Newco is the same as entry Following the completion of its transaction with PENM, Newco will look to raise an additional USD 30 40 m from foreign based financial investors Newco is currently in discussions with Carlisle and TPG. Negotiations with these parties are ongoing and we understand that the entry valuation of Newco will be approximately 15% higher than PENMs entry valuation, reflecting a 25% premium to the value attributed to Masan Food. Should the additional USD 40 m be raised at the above mentioned valuation, PENMs ownership interest, should all shares in Masan Food be swapped, will be diluted to 13.17%. 3. Financial performance The financial performance of Newco is based on the underlying financial performance of the businesses in which it has invested, including: Techcombank Masan Food New business areas 3.1 Financial performance Techcombank Balance sheet Techcombank USD m 2008 Actual June 2009 2009 Estimate 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast Cash on hand 87.0 56.6 101.4 123.5 161.2 Balance with the state bank 127.6 104.6 157.8 191.1 248.5 Balances with financial institutions 869.3 912.3 1,199.7 1,299.9 1,712.2 Investments 638.1 635.1 857.6 1,043.8 1,362.7 Net loans and advances to customers 1,445.5 1,829.2 1,940.8 2,523.0 3,279.9 Fixed assets 32.0 35.3 43.1 52.4 68.4 Other assets 82.1 185.0 110.4 134.4 175.4 Total Assets 3,281.6 3,757.9 4,410.8 5,368.1 7,008.3 Balances with other financial institutions 498.3 476.7 529.3 644.2 841.0 Deposits from customers 2,367.3 2,811.3 3,349.5 4,058.5 5,277.4 Other liabilities 103.4 93.2 137.4 163.8 249.4 Total Liabilities 2,969.1 3,381.2 4,016.2 4,866.5 6,367.8 Share capital 261.4 261.4 261.4 261.4 261.4 Retained earnings 35.4 57.1 96.2 187.2 305.3 Reserves 15.8 58.1 37.0 53.0 73.9 Total Liabilities Equity 3,281.6 3,757.9 4,410.8 5,368.1 7,008.3 YTD June 2009, Techcombanks net loans increased by 29%, compared to 2008, which outstripped market growth of 17% across the sector. Loan growth is expected to be lower in the second half of 2009 as a result of the expiration of the 4% government interest rate subsidy program, expected increases in base rates to curb increasing inflationary concerns and government efforts to limit national annual credit growth to 30%. As a result we expect full year loan growth to be 35% in 2009. In 2010 and 2011 we forecast annual growth in loans of 30%, which will be supported by network expansion, with the number of branch / transaction offices to increase by 45% from 2008 to 2010. In June 2009 non-performing loans (NPLs), decreased from 2.56% in 2008 to 2.54%, reflecting improved economic conditions. We forecast NPLs to remain at around 2.5% of the gross loan portfolio, while increasing the provision coverage of those loans to 70%, up from current levels of around 50%. Techcombanks solid balance sheet, at 2008 loans represented 66.5% of deposits, which was among the lowest of all top tier Vietnamese banks, has allowed it to capitalise on other banks demand for funding, driven by loan growth by being a significant net lender in the interbank market. Historically, this has been a very profitable asset pool for the company. We expect that the company will continue to be an active player in the interbank market and forecast that 70% of its deposit base will be used for customer loans. Investments are mainly bonds and other debt instruments issued by Vietnamese financial institutions, the government and corporations, a large number of which were acquired at heavily discounted prices in 2008. Through network expansion and offering innovative products, Techcombank has been able to develop customer deposits, which are mainly from individuals, into its dominant finding source, accounting for 85% of total funds mobilisation at June 2005, up from 80% in 2008. We expect this to continue going forward, to be supplemented with funding from interbank borrowing and by issuing bonds. Techcombanks capital adequacy ratio (CAR) stood at 14% at the end of 2008, falling to 10.7% at June 2009, we forecast it to remain at around 11 13% in the forecast period, significantly above the 8% recommended by Basel and required by the SBV. Profit and loss Techcombank USD m 2008 Actual June 2009 2009 Estimate 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast Interest income 345.5 n.a. 354.9 442.5 563.3 Interest expenses (247.7) n.a. (228.4) (290.9) (366.8) Net interest income 97.8 61.2 126.5 151.6 196.5 Net fee and commission income 26.8 25.7 36.0 46.8 60.9 Trading, treasury and other income 58.1 16.3 44.1 53.7 70.1 Total operating income 182.8 103.2 206.6 252.1 327.4 Operating costs (48.2) (29.1) (62.0) (75.6) (98.2) Depreciation (2.3) (1.7) (3.2) (3.8) (5.0) Net operating income before provisions 132.2 72.4 141.5 172.6 224.2 Provisions (42.4) (15.1) (32.0) (30.0) (39.0) PBT 89.8 57.3 109.5 142.6 185.2 Tax (24.0) n.a (27.4) (35.7) (46.3) PAT 65.7 n.a 82.1 107.0 138.9 PAT % 36.0% n.a 39.7% 42.4% 42.4% Note: USD 1 = VND 18,000 (different from the change rate in the info memo) n.a. Not available At June 2009 the banks net interest margin was 3.6%, down from 4.1% in 2008. Over the forecast period we estimate that this will fall to 2.55% as the market becomes more competitive, leading a CAGR increase in net interest income of 19% from 2008 to 2011 to USD 563 m. Techcombank will continue its concerted efforts to increase per customer revenue by pursuing fees and commission income from letters of credit, guarantees, FX and commodity futures as well as developing new products. In 2008 Techcombank booked USD 63 m in realised gains from the sale of bonds purchased in the high inflation environment that existed in mid-2008, a further USD 30 m has been booked in the year to June 2009. While the size of these gains are not expected to be recurring, at December Techcombank had USD 590m of bonds on its balance sheet included in investments, a large portion of which were purchased at heavily discounted rates. In accordance with VAS (Vietnamese Accounting Standards) no gains relating to these bonds have been booked to the income statement. The banks strong balance sheet mean that it should be able to take advantage of such opportunities, should they appear in the future, however, in the forecast period, we expect income from these investments to be at half the current level and together with treasury, investment and trading income, represent 20% of total operating income. We expect the write-off of bad debts to be lower in 2009, compared to 2008 as a result of an improvement in economic conditions. As noted above, we forecast the provision balance will cover 70% of the total NPL balance, which is significantly higher than the historical rate of around 50%. Historically, Techcombank has had a low operating cost ratio, accounting for 26.4% of total operating income in 2008, the lowest of all its peers. Our forecasts, conservatively, include an increase in these costs to 30% of income as competition for staff intensifies in the increasingly competitive environment. As a result of this low cost base we expect PAT to double from 2008 to 2011 to USD 139 m. 3.2 Financial performance Masan Food Profit and loss Masan Food USD m 2008Actual YTD June 2009 2009FRM 2009 Estimate 2010Forecast 2011 Forecast Sales 108.6 83.3 210.1 210.8 296.2 362.5 COGS (71.9) (56.0) (139.5) (141.2) (200.3) (245.4) Gross profit 36.7 27.3 70.6 69.6 95.8 117.0 Gross Margin 33.8% 32.8% 33.6% 33.0% 32.4% 32.3% Sales expenses (8.5) (9.4) (27.3) (23.8) (34.1) (42.4) Admin expenses (5.1) (3.1) (6.3) (7.9) (10.4) (12.7) EBITDA 23.1 14.8 37.0 37.9 51.4 61.9 EBITDA % 21.3% 17.8% 17.6% 18.0% 17.4% 17.1% Depreciation (2.9) n.a.* (3.0) (2.0) (5.9) (7.0) EBIT 20.2 15.0 34.0 35.9 45.5 54.9 Interest 4.4 (0.9) (3.0) (2.0) (2.6) 1.1 Other income 2.1 2.1 0 0 Tax (3.1) (1.4) (6.2) (6.8) (8.6) (11.2) PAT 21.5 14.7 24.8 29.2 34.3 44.8 PAT % 19.8% 17.7% 11.8% 13.8% 11.6% 12.4% Note: YTD June 2009 only includes domestic income, no income from export sales are recorded *: Depreciation not disclosed at June 2009 YTD June revenue, USD 83.3 m is 120% higher than the corresponding period in 2008, largely due to growth in fish sauce (up 218%), due to the introduction of a mass market label/brand in Q4 2008, and instant noodles, up USD 15 m, following the successful nation-wide launch of Tien Vua, a mass market offering in March 2009. YTD PAT, USD 14.7 m, is 165% higher than 2008, due to improved gross margins (YTD 2009: 34% vs YTD 2008: 31%), as a result of lower raw material prices, which is slightly offset by higher sales costs for fish sauce and instant noodles. Other income of USD 2.1 m is income earned on the interest rate differential arising from the governments interest rate subsidy program. Based on the particularly strong June results, we have increased our initial outlook (from November 2008) for 2009, increasing our PAT estimate from USD 24.8 to USD 29.3 m, representing a 36% increase on 2008. Our change in outlook reflects lower than expected increase in sales costs as a result of deeper penetration of Tam Thai Tu, Masan Foods mass market fish sauce, in rural and provincial areas. Privately, management expect that 2009 PAT will be USD 35 38 m. Consistent with what we have previously reported, in 2010 and 2011 sales as expected to increase by 40% and 22%, respectively, driven by growth in the following segments: fish sauce -Masan Food is focused on increasing market share in this large segment by increasing distribution in provincial and rural areas and offering an even more inexpensive line for those customers. By 2011 Masan Food hopes to have around 50% market share. instant noodles similar to fish sauce, Masan Food will continue to broaden its distribution to rural and provincial areas and offer line extensions of its mass-market noodle line. In doing so Masan Foods estimated market share will increase to around 15% in 2010, from around 8% in 2009 and account for 30% of total revenue. Currently the revenue forecast does not include any sales from new categories, including granules, frozen food or beverage (refer to Masan Food due diligence for further details). Nor does it include possible changes in distribution as a result of new activities in Newco. The increased contribution of instant noodles, the gross margin for which (30%) is less than that earned on other sauces (40%), will have a negative impact on profitability going forward as will higher depreciation as a result of investments in additional capacity in 2009 and 2010. Conversely, savings in financing costs in 2011 help improve the PAT%. Balance Sheet Masan Food USD m 2008 Actual 2009 Estimate 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast Assets Cash Cash Equivalents 5.5 2.1 3.0 42.5 Accounts Notes Receivable 6.4 23.1 32.5 39.7 Inventories 10.4 17.4 24.7 30.3 Other receivables 44.6 32.8 21.5 11.6 Net Property, Plant Equipment 14.7 45.6 54.2 61.0 Other long term assets 15.1 10.6 10.6 10.6 Total Assets 96.6 131.5 146.3 195.6 Liabilities Short Term Borrowings 16.8 35.7 5.4 Accounts Payable 9.0 19.3 27.4 33.6 Other Current Liabilities 11.9 12.1 13.0 16.6 Long Term Debt 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other Long Term Liabilities 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Shareholders Equity 56.9 63.8 99.9 144.7 Minority Interest Total liab. shareholders equity 96.6 131.5 146.3 195.6 The increase in net debt from USD 26.1 m in 2008 to USD 34.1 m in 2009, is a result of capex is in the region of USD 30 m. The majority, USD 24 m, of the spending is to be allocated to additional noodle capacity, both in HCMC and in Hanoi, with the remainder being spent on Vietnams fished fully automated fish sauce line, USD 5.5 m, in Q4, and moving of the chilli sauce line from the old factory to the new facility in Binh Duong. The capex forecast for 2010 and 2011 does not include expenditure for new facilities in new business areas, including beverage. The most significant other receivable is USD 17.4 m is a convertible bond owed by Masan Investment. The majority of this exchangeable bond was distributed to shareholders as a dividend from 2008 profits. According to our investment agreement, PENM transferred our rights to most of these bonds to Masan Investment (parent company) for the shares purchased in the initial transaction, the remainder will be part of any swap arrangement. Masan Food maintains relatively lean working capital levels, offering 40 days credit to its customers (distributors) and maintaining relatively low levels of finished goods such that total raw material and finished goods represents a little over a month of production. 3.3 Financial performance -New business areas Below is PENMs very early estimate for the earnings potential of the new business areas. These business areas are closely related to Techcombank and Masan Food activities and it is envisaged that there will be close cooperation within the group to ensure that these business areas realise their full potential. We have not included earnings from these businesses in our forecasts or our valuation. 3.3.1 New business areas logistics Logistics financial highlights USD m 2010 Estimate 2011 Estimate 2012 Estimate Revenue 8.3 17.8 21.3 EBITDA % 5% 5% 5% PAT (0.4) (0.6) 0.4 CAPEX 8.0 7.0 Newco will partner with Dubai-based Gulf Agency Company (GAC) (www.gacworld.com), a leading provider of provider of shipping, logistics, marine and related services, to establish a full scale logistics operation in Vietnam. Initially, the new joint venture, which Newco expects to own a 70% stake in, will distribute Masan Food products. The above estimate assumes that the new venture will carry 40%, 70% and 80% of Masan Foods outbound volume in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. We have not included any new, third party business. 3.3.2 New business areas -branded rice Branded rice financial highlights USD m 2010 2011 2012 Revenue 2.0 7.0 15.0 Gross profit 0.6 2.1 4.5 Gross margin 30% 30% 30% PAT (0.5) 0.25 1.45 CAPEX 8.0 Newco will invest between USD 3 5 m in a joint venture with Olam International (https://www.olamonline.com/), a Singapore-based global leader of supply chain management for agricultural products, for a new factory to produce branded rice. Olam, based partner will assist with processing technology and the development of export markets while Newco will provide an arms-length distribution agreement with Masan Food. 3.3.3 New business areas -commodity exchange Newco will team up with Financial Technologies Group (www.ftindia.com), one of the worlds largest providers of IT platforms for equity and commodity exchanges, with operations in India, the Middle East, SE Asia and Africa, to establish a local commodity exchange in Vietnam. The exchange will initially focus on the trading some of Vietnams largest agricultural exports: rice; coffee; and cashews and will use Techcombanks back office as well as leverage from its corporate customer base, a quarter of which are agriculture traders and processors. Currently, there is no financial forecast for this business area. 4. Newco Opening balance sheet and consolidated PL Newco estimated opening company balance sheet USD m 2009 Investments 420 Total assets 420 Debt 50 Share capital 370 The opening balance sheet reflects the 2 investments in Masan Food and Techcombank as well as the USD 50 m in debt, which has used in acquiring some of the shares. Newco consolidated profit and loss USD m 2009 Estimate 2010 Estimate 2011 Estimate Revenue Masan Food 210.8 296.2 362.5 Branded Rice 2.0 7.0 Logistics 17.8 21.3 Commodity exchange n.a. n.a. Total revenue 210.8 315.9 390.8 PAT before minorities 29.2 33.4 44.5 Elimination of minorities (13.1) (15.2) (20.1) Techcombank 16.4 21.4 27.8 PAT after minorities 32.5 39.6 52.2 n.a. not available The above is our estimate of Newcos consolidated income statement for the forecast period. It includes the full earnings of Masan Food as well as the new business areas, with minority holdings being eliminated after PAT. Techcombank, an associate of Newco, is equity accounted. 5. Valuation The negotiated valuation for PENMs cash investment in Newco has been based on: an equity value of Techcombank of USD 1,000 m an equity value of Masan Food of USD 400 m net debt of USD 50 m Giving rise to the following pre-money valuation: USD m Pre-money negotiated valuation PENM cash flow valuation PENM multiple valuation (PER) Techcombank (20%) 200 200 240 245 410 Masan Food (55%) 220 220 248 250 320 Net debt (50) (50) (50) Pre-money equity value 370 370 438 445 680 No value has been assigned to the new business areas. 5.1 Valuation of Techcombank An equity value of USD 1,000 m for Techcombank, equates to a PE (2009) of 12.2 x (2008 14.1 x) and a P/B (2009) of 2.5 x (2008 3.1 x). In the context of other listed banking companies in Vietnam, the Techcombank valuation is lower than its peers: Techcombank Peer Group Analysis PER P/B 2008 2009 2008 2009 Local Vietcombank 27.0 x 20.9 x 5.0 x 4.6x Vietinbank 24.6 x 24.8 x 3.6 x 3.3 x ACB 16.9 x 14.9 x 3.8 x 4.0 x Sacombank 19.7 x 16.2 x 2.4 x 2.6 x Regional (Indonesia) Bank Mandiri 16.0 x 14.7 x 2.8 x 2.5 x Bank Negara 24.3 x 12.3 x 1.9 x 1.7 x Bank Rekyat 12.9 x 16.0 x 4.1 x 3.4 x Bank Danamon 9.8 x 21.9 x 3.5 x 2.5 x Our cash flow analysis, which is based on the above financials and assumes average loan growth of 22% from 2008 2014, a net interest margin of 2.5% and a terminal value of 8 x 2014 PAT, discounted at 20% p.a., supports an equity value of between USD 1,000 1,250 m. 5.2 Valuation of Masan Food The valuation of USD 400 m for Masan Food equates to an EV/sales of 1.9 x 2009 (2008 3.0 x), EV/EBITDA of 10.2 x (2008- 14.1 x) and a PE of 14.5 x 2009 (2008 19.1 x). Compared to local and regional peers, the above valuations appear reasonable, particularly given the current growth rate of the company. Masan Food Peer Group Analysis PER EV/EBITDA 2008 2009 2008 2009 Local Vinamilk 29.4 x 15.5 x 11.5 x 9.6 x Regional China Foods 28.6 x 20.1 x 11.5x 14.1 x Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad 22.9 x 21.2 x 13.3 x 12.7 x Fraser Neave Holdings Berhad 20.3 x 16.2 x 8.9 x 8.3 x An equity value for Masan Food of USD 400 m is significantly higher than PENMs original entry value of USD 250 m (60%) and than the reported USD 320 m (25%) that Mekong Capital paid in March 2009. Our cash flow analysis, which is based on the above financials, forecast until 2018, with a perpetual growth rate of 5% p.a. and an annual discount rate of 20%, supports an equity value of between USD 400 450 m. 6. Limited due diligence results 6.1 Limited due diligence results Techcombank Our due diligence findings were based on interviews, with the assistance of David Hexter, Advisory Board Chairman, with senior Techcombank management (CEO, COO, Head of Treasury and Deputy Executive), as well as McKinsey Consulting, who are currently advising the bank, the CEO of Masan Investment and PwC, the auditor of the largest state-owned and listed joint stock banks in Vietnam. Those interviews confirmed that Techcombank is a well managed bank, strongly positioned to take advantage of the growth potential in the under-developed Vietnamese banking sector. The key findings from those meetings include: The cooperation with HSBC has been successful to date through the staff seconded to Techcombank (currently approx. 20) and representations in all Boards and committees, HSBC is very active in both the day-to-day management as well as at strategic levels in the bank. It appears that the cooperation has been particularly effective in improving/strengthening internal systems and staff development. Having just received its full banking licence, there could be concern that there is a conflict between HSBCs own activities and that of Techcombank, however, HSBC remain focused on providing services to locally based multi-nationals (MNCs) and foreign companies and individuals and not in Techcombanks of affluent local individuals and local Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Management is strong by local standards, although challenges remain By local standards, Techcombanks management and staff are strong, however, there is still a gap when compared to regional competitors. Recognising the gap, the bank has recently recruited a number of experienced foreigners (in addition to the secondments from HSBC) to the senior management team, including the roles of COO, Head of Treasury, Head of Sales and Head of Marketing. Despite this, remaining challenges include improving branch productivity, staff training and staff retention as still present. The Vietnamese banking sector is tightly regulated by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) As previously noted, the SBVs control is wide reaching, regulating everything from maximum loan rates banks can charge to loan growth and foreign ownership rules. Its control has the ability to significantly influence the development of the market, as evidenced during the high inflationary period during 2008, however, the development of a stable financial sector appears to be one of the governments focus areas. One of the key risks for the sector is the devaluation of the VND- as evidenced by Moodys recent downgrading of a number of Vietnams banks (including Techcombank and ACB, the leading listed joint stock bank) credit ratings, the devaluation of the VND is one of the greatest near-term risks in the banking sector. Techcombank, well aware of the risk, does not trade FX and limits inter day FX positions as part of its arbitrage services to 5 10% of its capital. Techcombanks level of collateralisation is high -Consistent with other local banks, Techcombanks loan portfolio is highly collateralised. At June 2009 99% of the banks loan portfolio was secured by collateral. By Vietnamese standards, it applies a conservative appraisal policy, and at June 2009 the appraised value represented 2.2 x the total loan portfolio, with the majority of the collateral being held in real estate and land use rights. This high level of collateralisation is also reflected in the banks credit processes, which appear to be more asset based than cash flow based. Techcombank has a low level of NPLs with adequate provisioning-Techcombanks proportion of NPLs to total loans is currently at 2.5%, showing a downward trend, this compares local competitors, Eximbank (4.7%) and Vietcombank (3.5%) who have a similar loan portfolio structure, with a high proportion of loans to corporations, who generally are slower in making interest payments. To cover potential losses in excess of the collateral held against those loans, at June 2009, Techcombank recorded provisions (specific and general) equivalent to 53.7% of its total NPLs, up from 48.7% at December 2008. Based on historical trends, these provisioning levels appear to be adequate to cover any write-off exposure. We do not believe that Techcombanks NPL level would be significantly higher if recorded under IFRS the classification of loans under Vietnamese regulations (VAS) is based on outstanding repayment of interest. This differs from IFRS, which uses an impairment based approach, taking into account such factors as the financial state of a company and the industry it is in. This difference allows Vietnamese companies to distort the allocation of loans into various categories by rescheduling repayment dates. However, the banks management has repeatedly attested that it does not undertake rescheduling and insisted that loans are classified automatically in its banking system. A recent survey by Fitch, a credit ratings agency, found significant differences in the level of NPLs under IFRS and VAS for the state-owned banks due to legacy loans to state-owned corporations. Although it did not have access to the joint stock banks accounts, Fitch concluded that such differences did not plague the joint stock banks, who were focused on SMEs and retail customers. Our discussions with PwC, auditor for 2 of the largest listed joint stock banks and largest state-owned bank, corroborated these findings and lead us to believe that the banks NPL level would not be significantly higher if IFRS was applied. It has not been possible to interview the Head of Risk Management or Techcombanks auditors, KPMG. We have, however, discussed risk management with Newcos Techcombank responsible (author of the Techcombank info memo) and PwC, the leading bank auditor in Vietnam. 6.2 Limited due diligence results Masan Food Our due diligence was limited to a discussion with Masan Food CEO, Mr Than, who was upbeat about the future of the company and reaffirmed his commitment to developing Vietnams leading a consumer-focused food and beverage company by entering new markets and defending its dominant position in existing markets. The main conclusions from those discussions were: The companys near term food strategy has been finalised In 2010 Masan Food will focus on marketing a new Vietnamese granule to be used in combination with fish sauce. While granules are currently available in the market, Masan Foods new marketing push is aimed at changing consumer behaviour. Furthermore, the company intends to enter the frozen food market in 2010, starting with an acquisition of a frozen seafood company a category for which no strong brand exists and where Masan Food can continue its food safety message adopted previously. The companys beverage strategy is in advanced stages of development, but not yet in place Masan Food has a vision of being a large food and beverage company and is currently exploring opportunities within beer, ready-to-drink (RTD) tea, water and fruit juices. Of these the most advanced is beer, where the company is considering a partnership with Deer Chang of Thailand in a joint venture that would require an investment of USD 40 50 m. Senior management strongly believe that, due to lack of focus consumer from the major local players, SABECO and HABECO, there are significant opportunities in building a new Vietnamese mid-market brand, focusing on the take-home market (which accounts for over 65% of consumption). Entry into this new category will be a significant challenge for the company and will require a new team to be hired into the company. Managements biggest near term challenge is remaining focused key to the companys success and profitability, has been its ability to derive value from very few stock keeping units (SKUs). As new markets are added Masan Food needs to ensure that its marketing competencies are not spread too thinly. The market is increasingly competitive Asian food suppliers are considered a greater threat than the international players, Unilever and PG, as a result of their ability to localise recipes and consumer insight. Masan Foods scale, particularly in fish sauce, and local marketing expertise, should help it in defending its position in the market. Operational issues still exist consistent with what we noted in our original due diligence, Masan Food continues to have a few operational issues including a poor production set-up (even the new factories are too cramped), an over-complicated internal supply chain and lack of support (operations and finance) from a strong IT system. A new ERP system should be in place by the start of 2010, however, the remaining operational issues still need to be addressed. 7. Key terms Transaction Up to USD 22 m in new capital (VND 394,727,571,000), representing an expected ownership interest of 5.5761%. Use of proceeds Repayment of debt, investment in new business areas and further capital increases in Techcombank. Conditions to subscription Receipt of all relevant evidencefor the ownership structure and approval of the transactions, including Business Registration Certificates, Share Certificates and excerpts of Shareholders Register Books,GSM resolutions, Board resolutions,and due diligence conclusions, accounts etc. satisfactory to PENM and PENM Board approval. Key covenants, reps and warranties Standard covenants, representations and warranties found in this type of transactions in Vietnam. Shareholder rights PENMs minority rights will be limited to normal rights included in the company charter, we will, however, received 1 Board position for a 2 year period after PENM exercises its first put option and as long as PENM holds 8% of the outstanding equity in Newco, excluding any dilution from the issuance of new shares. Restrictions Lock-up of 1 year after closing. Right of first refusal (one-sided) relating to PENMs shares in Newco gained from the swap arrangement, during the swap period. Indemnity Maximum liability, thresholds and Gross-up of Payable Amounts (gross up to ensure that theindemnified party receives and retains a net sum equal to the financial loss actually suffered). Exit Through listing or trade sale. 8.Key risks Key risks Comments Mitigation Limited influence in Newco Medium: The presence of a dominant majority owner and the possibility of future capital raising may mean that, despite Board representation, PENM has limited influence in the decision making process of Newco Use close contacts already forged with owners and align interests with other funds. An eventual listing would make Newco an easy exit Listing of Newco Low / medium: If Newco is listed, it is uncertain how the market will react to a group that combines banking and food assets. Diversified conglomerates are not unusual in the Asian context so no significant discount is expected Bank collapse similar to Europe / US Low: Despite being unaffected by the recent turbulence, there is a risk that the Vietnamese banking sector experiences similar issues as has been seen in Europe and the US Complex derivative instruments are not widely used in Vietnam, banking sector is strictly regulated by the SBV and has little financing on the international interbank market Masan Food not maintaining earnings momentum Low: The valuation of Masan Food requires the company to maintain its momentum in earnings growth The same risk exists on our current investment in Masan Food. The company also has a strong pipeline 9. Proposal PENM is seeking approval to make up to DKK 114,975,0005 m (USD 22 m), and minimum DKK 78 m (USD 15 m), investment in Newco for a 5.5961% stake.